Costa del Sol Property Sales Slow in 2026 — While Prices Continue to Rise

After several years of exceptionally strong activity, the residential market across Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona has entered a noticeably different phase in 2026.

During the first half of the year, 3,422 residential transactions were completed across the three municipalities, compared with 4,313 transactions during the same period in 2025.

That represents a 20.7% year-on-year decline in transaction volume.

The slowdown was visible across all three markets: Marbella -21.8%, Estepona -18.6% and Benahavís -22.6%.

The figures are significant, but they do not tell the full story.

Fewer transactions, but not lower prices

H1 2026 vs H1 2025: sales volume declined across Marbella, Estepona and Benahavís while average completed prices increased.

While transaction volumes declined, average completed prices moved in the opposite direction.

Across Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona, the average transaction price reached approximately €4,366 per square metre during H1 2026, compared with €3,781/m² during the same period a year earlier.

That represents an increase of 15.5%.

Average transaction prices increased in all three municipalities: Marbella +13.5%, Estepona +19.2% and Benahavís +19.6%.

This divergence between transaction volumes and prices is one of the most interesting features of the current market.

A reduction in sales does not automatically imply a fall in property values. Equally, an increase in the municipal average price does not mean that every individual property has appreciated by the same percentage.

The mix of properties sold — their location, size, condition, quality and price bracket — can materially influence municipal averages, particularly in relatively small and high-value markets such as Benahavís.

The second quarter was stronger than the first

The first half of the year was not uniformly weak.

Transactions across the three municipalities increased from 1,632 in Q1 to 1,790 in Q2, a rise of 9.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Activity improved between the two quarters in all three municipalities, although at different rates.

This does not reverse the year-on-year decline, but it does provide useful context: transaction activity strengthened as the first half progressed rather than continuing to deteriorate.

This is not only a Marbella phenomenon

The reduction in transaction volumes is visible beyond the Costa del Sol.

According to the General Council of Notaries, housing transactions across Spain fell 4.0% year-on-year in June 2026.

In Andalucía, the decline was more pronounced, at 9.7%.

At the same time, average transaction prices continued to rise: 8.8% nationally and 8.0% in Andalucía.

The broader pattern is therefore similar to what we are seeing locally: lower transaction volumes alongside higher average completed prices.

Three different markets within the Costa del Sol

Aggregate figures also hide an important reality: the market is behaving very differently depending on the price segment and the profile of the buyer.

Up to approximately €600,000–€700,000

This is arguably the segment where the slowdown is most visible.

In recent years, a meaningful part of demand in this range came from buyers purchasing with an investment strategy in mind, particularly for holiday rentals. As short-term rental regulations have become more restrictive and purchase prices have risen strongly, many of these investments are now less compelling from a pure yield perspective.

At the same time, owner-occupiers or second-home buyers within this budget face a more demanding financial environment.

Access to financing is more selective, borrowing conditions are less generous than in previous years, and the level of savings required to cover deposits, taxes and acquisition costs has increased.

For a standard middle-income household, allocating several hundred thousand euros to a second residence on the Costa del Sol is simply harder today than it was a few years ago.

This helps explain why this segment appears particularly sensitive to pricing, financing conditions and expected rental returns.

Between approximately €700,000 and €2 million

In this range, the market appears considerably more stable.

The typical buyer tends to have a stronger savings position and is often looking to allocate surplus liquidity into a tangible asset that can preserve value over the long term.

However, this does not mean buyers are willing to purchase indiscriminately.

This buyer is increasingly focused on the relationship between quality, location and price. They compare alternatives carefully, assess recent transactions and are less willing to accept asking prices that are not supported by the underlying characteristics of the property.

The market remains active, but it has become far more selective.

Above €2 million

The prime and super-prime segments are behaving differently again.

In our reading of the market, demand above €2 million has remained significantly more resilient, while the very top end continues to attract substantial international capital.

We are also seeing an increasing presence of very high-value transactions, including properties above €6 million, although this should be understood as a market observation rather than a single headline statistic.

The motivations of this buyer are different.

For high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, a prime property in Marbella is not simply a residence. It can also form part of a broader wealth-preservation and diversification strategy.

A €10 million, €15 million or €20 million property allows an investor to transfer a meaningful proportion of capital from cash, financial markets or business exposure into a tangible asset located in one of Europe’s most established luxury residential destinations.

During periods of inflation, stock-market volatility or broader economic uncertainty, this type of asset can become especially attractive to buyers focused on long-term capital preservation.

Marbella also offers another important advantage: a relatively deep international resale market for prime property.

That does not mean every luxury property is automatically liquid, nor that there is a guaranteed resale period. Location, quality, scarcity, condition and pricing remain decisive.

But the strongest properties in Marbella benefit from an international buyer base that is difficult to replicate in many other European residential markets.

This is one of the reasons why the upper end of the market can behave very differently from lower price brackets.

While the lower segments are more dependent on financing conditions, rental returns and household savings, the luxury market is influenced much more by international capital flows, wealth diversification and capital preservation.

What does this mean for sellers?

For sellers, a market with fewer completed transactions places greater importance on correct positioning.

When transaction volumes are very high, pricing mistakes can sometimes be absorbed by strong demand. In a more selective market, buyers compare more, analyse alternatives more carefully and pay closer attention to condition, location and value.

That does not necessarily mean prime properties need to be discounted.

It means that the relationship between asking price and real market value becomes increasingly important.

Properties that combine strong locations, good presentation and realistic pricing can behave very differently from stock whose pricing is based primarily on competing asking prices rather than completed transactions.

And for buyers?

For buyers, lower transaction volumes do not automatically translate into a falling market.

The notarial data shows precisely the opposite in terms of average completed prices during the first half of 2026.

However, a more selective market can create a different negotiating environment.

A seller’s circumstances, how long a property has been available, the quality of competing stock and the property’s underlying value become more relevant than the headline direction of the market alone.

This makes property-by-property analysis particularly important.

A market becoming more selective

The first half of 2026 suggests a clear change in pace across Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona.

Transaction volumes are materially below last year’s levels, while completed prices remain high and, on average, above those recorded in 2025.

At the same time, activity improved between Q1 and Q2.

The market is therefore not moving in one single direction.

The lower end is more sensitive to financing and rental economics. The mid-market remains active but considerably more price-conscious. The prime and super-prime segments continue to benefit from international demand and capital allocation.

For now, the data is better described as a lower-volume, more selective and increasingly segmented market than as a broad decline in property values.

For both buyers and sellers, that distinction matters.

Sources: Portal Estadístico del Notariado / Consejo General del Notariado. Local H1 2026 figures for Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona cross-checked against analysis based on Notary Statistics Portal data.